Who's most likely to move out of San Francisco?

The data shows that residents in District 6 said they were more likely to move than residents in other neighborhoods.

The results of San Francisco’s 2013 City Survey Report, released this past spring, contain some interesting data about who is most likely to leave San Francisco in the next three years, suggesting that the demographic shift currently underway will continue.

Parents with small children, younger residents, recent transplants, and people who are having a tough time covering their basic expenses are the most likely to move out of San Francisco in the next three years, according to the survey results.

Also, residents of District 6, which encompasses SoMa and the Tenderloin, seemed to be more in flux than residents living in other neighborhoods. “District 6 contains the highest percentage of residents who report being likely to move out of the city in the next three years (26 percent),” according to the survey results, “while District 10 contains the lowest (15 percent).”

According to the survey, “Parents, and particularly parents of young children, indicate that they are either very or somewhat likely to move out of the city in the next three years at a higher rate than non-parents. Those with children under age six – those likely to enroll in school shortly … report a much higher likelihood of moving in the next three years than parents of older children.”

The survey also noted that “more recent residents, younger residents and those facing challenges covering their basic expenses” also reported being more likely than others to leave the city in the next three years.

Here’s some insight as to who’s having a tough time making ends meet. In Districts 9, 10, and 11, according to the survey data, between 20 and 25 percent of respondents said it was challenging to cover basic expenses.

What’s this data say about the future of San Francisco? Apparently mature, financially secure professionals who have neither children nor financial worries are here to stay. For people whose lives are a bit more complicated, a more relevant question to ask might be what the future holds for the East Bay.


The relevant question to ask is "How did San Francisco end up like this, who bears political responsibility for getting paid to stop this and failing and why are they still getting paid?"

Posted by marcos on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 1:34 pm

#1 Failed and vague social engineering experiments to bring "diversity" into our schools.

#2 Driving up rents and home prices via embrace of rent control and affordable housing giveaways.

#3 Coddling the homeless, turning out streets into public toilets

Posted by RemyMarathe on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 2:44 pm

Progressives have never been in power in San Francisco.

Posted by Whoops! on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 9:16 pm

You must be a recent arrival ! The last moderate mayor was Frank Jordan and the last moderate supervisor was Quentin Kopp and that was over 20 years ago, it has been a looney bin for a long time.

Posted by Guest Nicolas on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 6:27 am

of 2000 AD +

Progressive are like right wingers under Bush, in SF they ran the show for some time but there was always some external thing fucking it all up.

Posted by matlock on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 4:51 pm

The fact that there is this sizable progressive paid advocacy cohort and the fact, with which I agree, that progressives have never been in power in San Francisco (although progressives were part of a coalition that won the Board of Supervisors 13 years ago) lead to the question of why don't we have a citywide political majority when our ideas are salient with the voters and there are several hundred, perhaps more than a thousand, people getting paid to do this work?

If these people are getting paid by neoliberal interests to run interference for the neoliberal regime and the consequences of being paid to not contest political power are measured in displacement and gentrification, then these individuals bear a greater share of responsibility for the destruction being visited on those unfortunate enough to be on the business end of corporate dominated public policy.

The question has to be: "How do San Franciscans hold these individuals accountable for squandering the last political coalition and now actively inhibiting that proven viable political coalition from coalescing to end the attacks on our communities?"

Yes, our opponents are well resourced and clever. But that is no excuse for cutting a separate peace and throwing in the towel on behalf of the rest of us. San Franciscans have to hold accountable those who claim to act for San Franciscans when they fail to deliver and we bear the consequences.

Posted by marcos on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 8:15 pm

You hit the nail right on the head.

Posted by Guest Nicolas on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 6:30 am

This is a real-live demonstration of how trying to actively / deliberately
change something toward a certain end results in the complete

"The Road to Hell is paved with Good Intentions"

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it"

Posted by Guest on Jul. 14, 2013 @ 9:30 pm

I just wanted to remind us all. Words are very powerfull. Once written or spoken. You can never bring them back. Unlike a black eye or a scrape. Witch Amazingly will heal. The body is so Amazing. But it is words that will take any situation and turn it around or decide its fate.
Todays challenges are great. This is the time for us to pool together and work together instead of point fingers and continue to divide and conquer which is why we face these problems in the first place.
I have been a resident of San Francisco for my entire life of 47 so far. This is my home. How do you think I feel? I have been homeless, I have had a job and paid my taxes and done it for years at a time. I am on Social Security, however I cant wait to give it back. I am in school and working dilligently to help myself and those around me who also need help.
I liked the heading I noticed in the guardian today about Partnerships and new leadership and the theme of working together for common goals. The most prominant thing in my life that has consistantly gotten me into trouble is this. I CAN DO IT I DONT NEED THIS OR THAT.
I am here to tell you that life gives evryone a turn, so evryone is enevidabilly going to have to wait. I would suggest that you work with me as I will you rather than point your finger at me. It helps you more.
It disturbed me the question regarding The public streets turning into a toilet. WELL there is some truth to that. But it also wags an ugly finger at the homeless. And it misses the true responsibility for what the truth is about fecal matter on the street.
1)You dont even mention loss of public facilities?This means......retailers dont even allow people in theire buisness to take care of basic human needs like potty buisness
2)A space toilet on Market street is NOT enough to handle if we DIDNT have homeless people.
3)The general dividing line about TOP/BOTTOM is the most rediculas mentality that has brought this city to the place its in. But no one ever confronts the actuall source or problem. No it usually falls on the wrong group because actually making a difference around here means getting involved and hardly anyone wants to do that.

In closing: It is ludicrus to state something is not right if your lets say phone account says JOHN DOE on it. Its all realivant. I dont carfe what your reasoning is. Its a division that is seperate from the group.

So Lets start with ourselves and then ask stupid questions that arent so damn seperatist shall we?

Posted by Guest Rickter on Jul. 18, 2013 @ 5:43 pm

You are my twin in all!! Love you to death!! The people need to open their greedy, selfish eyes and get real!! Where are all those maids and handy-men going to live if you don't stop abusing the system you accuse them of doing? There is NO way in hell a homeless person can defend their self when anybody ever does is either kick them or ignore them. Put them someplace for a week? Oh, hey great! I'm sure anyone could find and save enough in a week for a place to live!! Sure!

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Posted by Ella on Aug. 22, 2013 @ 6:53 am

This study would have to be longitudinal to comfortably draw the conclusions that you do. For example, it says that young parents of young children are likely to move out of the city, but how does that compare to how the same cohort felt 10 years ago? It is possible that parents of young children are always likely to more out of the city.

By using the same logic underpinning your conclusion you would assume that, in the future, there would be very few people over 90 living in the city. Because all of the current people over 90 are already past their life expectancy. But you have to account for the people who are currently late 80's. Or, in this case, people who are just engaged to start a family.

Posted by Troll on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 1:39 pm

....SOMA and Tenderloin residents will move out in droves is because the police dept does NOTHING about the drug dealers, transients, homeless squatters, pee-ers, defacators, and panhandlers. We live in a million dollar condo on Van Ness and we are tired of calling police to remove the trash from our neighborhood. Imagine how fast they'd be removed from Pac Heights or the Marina. The major money speaks the loudest. Because of the projects in Western Addition, and the SROs in the TL, the neighborhoods will never EVER improve. The police should run a sting operation in every neighborhood of the TL/WA and nail these guys to a wall. Have judges put restraining orders on them so they can never return. DO NOT allow begging or panhandling of any kind. There are more soup kitchens in the TL than anywhere else in SF. Shouldn't we be putting some in Pac Hts? The Marina? Let's spread the wealth around, guys. How ridiculous it is for us to bear the brunt of all the disgusting low-lifes. It's not like we bought a cheap unit either, we were told the neighborhood was "getting cleaned up" and would be nice in awhile. Yeah, and pigs fly too.

Posted by Guest SFAnnie on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 2:26 pm

Did you really just call people "trash" that the police should remove? Wow. The TL was filled with poor people since long before you bought your million-dollar condo, and they have as much right to remain in this city as you do. Your sense of entitlement and lack of humanity are truly astonishing.

Posted by steven on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 4:06 pm

That's right Steve,and we do not need any more human parasites hear,may-be you will think twice when they rob,and kill your loved ones,it is sad,but true

Posted by Guest on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 7:24 pm

People like you the reason why this city is falling apart and the nasty homeless ruining everything. They are worthless and just not be considered humans, just animals since they are so filthy and act like them. Steven, what part of the city you live in. I am sick of dealing with those animals everyday. They smell like crap and crap all over the place. They have no rights to be here and make life misible for everyone else. I hate those parasites with a passion and wish they were round up and sent to your house. You are just another dead brain libtard that protects criminals that would rob you blind if given a chance.

Posted by TeamRetic on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 9:11 am

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, and that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, and among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness."

Do you remember celebrating these concepts last week, or did you think it was just about hot dogs and pretty lights in the sky? People have rights, all people and not just owners of "million-dollar condos," something that seems self-evident to most of us, but apparently not you.

Your hatefulness doesn't entitle you to rid the city of people you deem undesireables, a dangerous mentality that this country has fought wars to oppose. These are people, and they have rights and they have needs, including the need to urinate in a city that has a huge homeless population and few public restrooms.

I'm not going to spend much time or energy arguing with you, because you clearly have personal anger issues that go well beyond anything we can solve here. But just try to understand that the "million dollar condo" you bought was in a big city teeming with all kinds of people (you also chose a neighborhood that happens to have lots of the kinds of people you hate, and they were there long before you), and that life here can be messy and difficult at times. You might be happier in the suburbs, where the police may be a bit more responsive to your hatred of the poor. Until then, try yoga or something else that might relax you.

Posted by steven on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 12:17 pm

I do not live in a condo, I live in public housing. You have no idea how stressful it is to live in a place like this. Have to deal with these things everyday, get harrassed by them, smell their stench and most of them do act like animals and crap all over the place. I saw one of those nasty animals pissed all over the place on the BART train. Just go shoot yourself and thanks a lot for supporting this crap you liberal trash. You must live in a fictinal world. Bum rights trash like you should invite them to live in your house. Why you don't invite them if you side with them so much. You most likely some rich white liberal that lives in the Marina and do not want those bums, so you try to claim to fight for their rights and keep them out of your area and in the tenderloin. Go spend time in the area and see for yourself how disgusting these subhumans are.

Posted by TeamRetic on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 5:04 pm

You write of the homeless as the right wingers write of public housing residents. You'd best reconsider your bad witch ways before someone drops public housing out from under you.

Posted by marcos on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 8:17 pm

The untis were sold to their tenants at a discount, and they then formed HOA's to handle the maintenance, getting the city off the hook.

Why not here?

Posted by Guest on Jul. 16, 2013 @ 3:46 am

Because public housing has to be kept available and affordable to the public after you're done with it.

Posted by Anony on Jul. 16, 2013 @ 10:50 am

Why does the government have to me in the real estate business at all? It is clearly no good at it.

Posted by Guest on Jul. 16, 2013 @ 11:51 am

Sure all men are created equal, but they behave different and that is why so many are in prison! Derelicts who behave badly on the streets are only tolerated is dysfunctional societies which is what SF is becoming...

Posted by Guest on Jul. 19, 2013 @ 2:19 pm


Yes, they do have a right to be here. And I'm sure the OP would have no problem with them simply "being here."

The problem is their behavior while they are here (peeing, defecating, drug dealing &c).

Do you think they also have a right to do those things?

Posted by RemyMarathe on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 11:52 am

I do agree with the concept of putting low-income services in high-income areas. Practically speaking, though, marginalized people do best when they don't have to travel far for services.

Posted by Hortencia on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 4:13 pm

Plenty of them travel to SF from Florida and West Virginia.

Posted by RemyMarathe on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 1:58 pm

Sorry to hear you've had to endure so much discomfort since settling for the mere "million dollar condo," while all those gleaming "major money" condos remained out of reach. Sounds like it's been truly difficult for you indeed. By the way Annie, your use of the phrase "spread the wealth around" in this context is fascinating.

Posted by rebecca on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 5:08 pm

Especially for a house in SF.

Sorry if that tickles your insecurities but them's the facts.

Posted by RemyMarathe on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 12:18 pm

Maybe you're not as smart as you think you are. You probably should have done some homework before you purchased.

Posted by Guest on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 10:53 am

The TL will always have the most transient statistics. If they'd stop letting people camp out in alleys, panhandle on the streets, build more soup kitchens and projects, we might be able to clean it up enough to get "normal" people to live there long term.

Posted by Guest on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 2:36 pm

Apparently, families with children who are getting ready to enter school leave the city because the school district is run by politicians who are more interested in their next political paycheck than they are in the children they are sworn to serve. That is as apparent (and stupid and simplistic) as the assumption made by the author.

Posted by Richmondman on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 2:43 pm

the vast majority of my friends who have left SF did so because of the fucked up schools. It is really sad.

Posted by Guest on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 8:19 am

I hate to say it, but Mid-Market and the Tenderloin are ripe for gentrification because of the low rent and proximity to downtown. Liberals need to stop coddling the homeless and stop accepting public urinating/defecating/panhandling.

The only way that neighborhood will improve is if gentrification comes in and pushes out most of the existing residents without eliminating them entirely. And by that, I mean give rebates/tax deductions to businesses and tech companies that set up shop in the TL. Bulldoze a lot of the older buildings that are decrepit and replace them with high-quality high-rise housing/commercial units.

If this happens, the neighborhood will improve within 3-5 years. Make it uncomfortable for the drug dealers, panhandlers, prostitutes and loiterers.

Posted by JumpStreet1983 on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 3:29 pm

so I'm sure SFBG will oppose it.

Posted by RemyMarathe on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 3:41 pm

I'm a liberal, but having grown up in New York, I *HATE* homeless people and would love to see them rounded up and either killed or shipped off somewhere else. I hate being around them and I refuse to give them even a penny. When one of them approaches me, I curse them out and often throw a used kleenex at them.

Posted by Guest on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 8:58 pm
Posted by Whoops! on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 9:15 pm

Well aren't you a bad-ass with your used kleenex projectile.

Posted by pete moss on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 7:17 am

You are definitely not a liberal if you think people should be rounded up and killed or forced to relocate. Been reading Hitler lately? Maybe Pol Pot?

Posted by Tim Bracken on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 10:07 am

Guest is clearly a troll.

Apparently, if you object to having to step over shit every morning on your way to work, you are the equivalent of Hitler or Pol Pot.

Posted by RemyMarathe on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 12:05 pm

They need to clear out the bums from the streets, the residents in the buildings are just fine. Most of the problems are those dirty bums and the libtards that keeps cuddling them and criminals. Plus there is a lot of sex offenders that are bums in the area. I am so sick of stupid bum rights idiots and I know they will never open their homes to let some of them live there.

Posted by TeamRetic on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 5:10 pm
Posted by Whoops! on Jul. 11, 2013 @ 9:17 pm

I had friend who's dad was a chronic inebriate, back in the day, we're talking early '70's.

Back then the City ran a 'wino camp' out in the sticks where they shipped public drunks and then put them to hard labor.

They also dosed them with Antabuse and tried various 'therapies' such as electrshock.

My freinds dad didn't survive wino camp.

I would NEVER allow myself to be rounded up and sent to ANY kind of reorientation facility.

Posted by pete moss on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 7:32 am

Used to be that there were hobo camps along train lines in what are now the exurbs where those who did not fit into socialized existence could live outside of society. The penetration of capital into these former marginal areas forced all of those folks back into the cities where they are maintained as objects upon which the insecure can project their anxiety.

Posted by Anony on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 7:54 am

There still are hobo camps. Google 'slab city'.

Face it, economic turmoil over the last decades, not to mention endless wars, have produced a bumper crop of traumatized, displaced folks.

It can happen to anyone.

We're all just an outsourcing or a downsizing away from the street.

Posted by pete moss on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 10:44 am

"Apparently mature, financially secure professionals who have neither children nor financial worries are here to stay."


I don't think the writer meant to say that.

I've worked with many financially secure so-called "professionals" (that word "professionals" has always sounded so pretentious and elitist to me) who didn't/don't have children or financial worries, and most of them were not necessarily mature. Many of them acted quite childish, dysfunctional and petty and were often considered a problem to be around by others in the office because of their lack of personality or difficult personality. That's not a sign of "mature" or maturity or a well-adjusted person. In other words, maturity does not necessarily equate with being financially secure.

Anyone who does their job and does it well is a professional, no matter what the job is. No need for snobby elitism.

Also, hating on homeless people is an illness of a very sick society, no matter what label a person wears.

Posted by Guest on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 5:19 am

Why do you think Parents with young children and new arrivals wants to move from the city?
is not just for an economic problem...
is because this city is being a shit!
crazies and weirdos everywhere,
too many criminals, drug users, and so on...

how is this possible? nobody wants to live in a trash,

and nobody wants their kids grow up in a dangerous place with many sexual offenders too...

Posted by Guest on Jul. 12, 2013 @ 7:00 am