Is Obama in trouble?

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There's no doubt that Mitt Romney got a nice, juicy bounce from the first presidential debate. There's no doubt that President Obama's performance was so bad that even his friends call it a world-class fuckup.

Is it time to seriously start believing that if we don't all get our shit together, we could be looking at this?

Well, yes and no.

Yes in the sense that momentum is a huge deal in a presidential race -- the more it appears Obama might lose, the more money pours into the Romney camp and the more Romney partisans get active and the more the reluctant right that never really trusted him starts to perk up. The Obama folks hope the opposite happens -- that fear will motivate a lot of progressives who've been pissed at the president to get back into the game.

But let's remember -- the winner in November will not be the one who finished first in the Gallup poll. This is not a national election. It's a state-by-state election, for better or for worse, and the polling we ought to be looking at is in the swing states. And so far -- even in the days right after the debae, when Romney was seeing the most dramatic improvement -- the swing states are looking okay. Not great, but not a disaster.:

In what were the worst polling days for the president all cycle, the GOP's hack pollster Rasmussen found Nevada tied 47-47, Obama up in Iowa 49-47, Obama up in Colorado 49-48, and Obama up in Ohio 50-49. He also found Romney up 49-47 in Florida and 49-48 in Virginia. PPP found Obama winning Virginia 50-47 and Wisconsin 49-47. Ann Selzer, one of the best pollsters in the biz, found Obama leading in Colorado 47-43.

Yes, the polls in Texas show even more support for Romney, and Obama's support in California has softened a little, but that's irrelevant -- the only way the solid-color states are shifting columns is if something really cataclysmic happens.

Fox News thinks Romney has already won -- but check out the popular vote v. the electoral vote rundown here. Romney's got a nearly 50-50 chance of winning the popular vote -- but his odds of winning the election are stil below 30 percent.

Just for fun, check out the second map here, which shows a plausible scenario for a deah heat, a tie that would be broken by the House of Representatives. Plausible, but pretty unlikely.

So don't file your application for Canadian residency yet; Obama needs to fight back a little more and realize that this isn't a time for nonpartisanship, but he's still the odds-on favorite to win.

 

Comments

Roney is way more liberal than Bush.

Hyperbole. the average SF liberal wouldn't last 5 minutes in France or Sweden.

Posted by Guest on Oct. 09, 2012 @ 1:05 pm

He gave a great speech and was full of energy. It's clear he knows he has to make up for his single poor debate performance last week. I have confidence he will.

Posted by Troll II on Oct. 09, 2012 @ 5:14 pm

The only thing that Obama has to run on is the horror of his opponent winning. The opponent just presented himself as not a horror. Obama presented himself as a more tepid version of Romney.

None of this would have happened had Obama not abandoned his electoral coalition for Bush II's governing coalition on the seminal issues of his presidency where he chose to side with the small but powerful set of interests that are causing the problems and against various degrees of support, from majority to supermajority, on issues like the wars, bank bailouts and wall street finance reform and a single payer or public option.

None of this was far leftist fringe, these solutions were supported by various very large coalitions composed of folks who remembered that they'd been screwed when they stayed home in Nov 2010 costing Obama the House. Now Obama is poised to lose.

And for there to be any modicum of accountability in politics, Obama kinda hasta lose or else the Democrats will keep screwing us over and again.

Posted by marcos on Oct. 09, 2012 @ 6:17 pm

Time for a real alternative to the Repugnocrats.

Posted by Ana on Oct. 14, 2012 @ 2:13 pm

Olague|Campos|Avalos

Posted by Guest on Oct. 09, 2012 @ 9:01 pm

You write for a respected paper in one of the most recognized cities in the United States?

This is just sad. Have you ever heard of spell-check?

WOW!

Posted by Guest on Oct. 10, 2012 @ 9:08 pm

Support Obama! "Turn a Red State to A Blue State" By The Game Brothas

http://youtu.be/zZcBNtFOGVk

Posted by Guest on Oct. 18, 2012 @ 9:00 am