Turnout and SF races

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By Tim Redmond
At City Hall

Well, our resident expert on political predictions, Chris Bowman, who is that rarest of creatures (a smart Republican), stopped by with his predictions. He estimates 42 to 44 percent turnout city wide, which is actually better than I had expected. That's based on a formula for predicting turnout based on absentees that he's used for about 15 years.

Ted Gullicksen of the Tenants Union was here also, worrying that the turnout would be higher on the west side, since that's where all the action's been. (Reilly-Ma and Nevin-Yee have big, well-funded GOTV operations and have run very, very visible campaigns). High westside turnout would be bad for the pro-tenant Prop. B and would help the Laguna Honda fraud, Prop. D.
But Bowman says not to worry about that -- he says most people are turning out to vote for governor, and that the voting will be heavily Democratic on both sides of town.